Agriculture Canada has ramped its 2025-26 durum and all wheat ending stocks estimates from last month, with durum stockpiles potentially hitting a multi-year high.
In its September supply-demand estimates released Friday, Ag Canada forecast durum ending stocks at 1.2 million tonnes, up sharply from the government’s August estimate of 550,000 and potentially the highest since 2018-19 at 1.832 million.
Meanwhile, 2025-26 all wheat stocks are now projected by Ag Canada at 5.2 million tonnes. That’s up from 4.35 million last month and 4.112 million the previous year, although still below the 2023-24 all wheat stocks level of 5.278 million.
The changes from last month are due mainly to the Sept. 9 Statistics Canada grain stocks report - which raised the durum and all wheat carryins from the previous crop year - as well as the Sept. 17 Statistics Canada crop production report that showed larger than expected Canadian wheat and durum crops for 2025.
For durum, the StatsCan production report put this year’s crop at 6.535 million tonnes, up from Ag Canada’s August estimate of 5.993 million and even above the 2024 crop of 6.38 million. Combined with a larger carryin from 2024-25 of 496,000 tonnes (versus the August estimate of just 260,000), the total 2025-26 durum supply is now seen at 7.036 million tonnes, up from 6.277 million in August and near 7.054 million a year earlier.
Ag Canada offset at least some of this month’s larger supply by raising the 2025-26 durum export forecast by 200,000 tonnes from last month to 5 million, still below 5.821 million a year ago, while total domestic use was pared back to 836,000 tonnes from 927,000 in August.
The bottom line was a significant month-over-month increase in projected durum stocks, with Ag Canada also dropping its 2025-26 average price forecast to $280/tonne, down from $315 in August and $321 last year.
Canadian all wheat production for 2025 is now estimated at 36.624 million tonnes, well up from Ag Canada’s August forecast of 34.855 million, while the carryin is seen at 4.112 million, versus 3.530 million last month. The total all wheat supply is projected at 40.841 million tonnes, up from 38.51 million in August but still below 41.302 million in 2024-25.
With the larger supply, Ag Canada raised its 2025-16 all wheat export forecast to 27 million tonnes, compared to 25.9 million in August and 29.22 million last year, while domestic use was bumped up to 8.641 million from 8.26 million in August and 7.969 million in 2024-25.
Ag Canada is estimating the all wheat (excl durum) price for 2025-26 at $270/tonne this month, down $20 from August and below $282 in 2024-25.
